TANZANIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE – AUGUST, 2014 RAINFALL SEASON

Seasonal Forecast

 

 

PRESS RELEASE

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE – AUGUST, 2014 RAINFALL SEASON

This statement summarizes the current and future state of climate systems and associated weather during June-August 2014 period over the country.

1. WEATHER AND CLIMATE SYSTEMS

Climate system and model forecast indicates a likelihood of warm Sea Surfaces Temperature (SSTs) over the Central Equatorial Pacific during June to August 2014 period. Slight warm SSTs are expected over the western Indian Ocean while cool SSTS are expected over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. This condition is expected to influence westerly wind flow across the country. On the other hand, warmer SSTs conditions are expected over the southern tip of Africa and are likely to influence southerly wind flow towards the country during the period. Short periods of enhanced southerly wind flow are also likely during the month of July 2014.

The above configuration is likely to result into mild cold conditions during June to August 2014 period. However, occasional rains are anticipated at times over, Lake Victoria basin, high-grounds and coastal areas.

2. MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-AUGUST, 2014

2.1 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-AUGUST, 2014

During June-August period, most parts of the country usually experience dry and cold conditions. The June-August 2014 temperature forecasts indicate likelihood of warm minimum temperatures. However, it should be noted that, minimum temperatures are more relevant during night times and early morning hours. The outlook for the minimum temperatures is detailed as follows:

Lake Victoria basin (Mwanza, Mara, Geita, Shinyanga, Simiyu and Kagera regions): Above normal minimum temperatures (More than 17.2 ⁰C) are expected over these areas while southern parts of Shinyanga and Simiyu regions are likely to experience normal minimum temperatures.

Northern coast and hinterlands (Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Coast, northern part of Morogoro regions and isles of Unguja and Pemba): Above normal minimum temperatures (More than 22.9 ⁰C) are expected over most areas. Below normal minimum temperatures (Less than 15.9 ⁰C) are expected over high grounds areas of Tanga region.

Northeastern highlands (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions): Normal minimum temperatures (Between 13.0 ⁰C and 15.8 ⁰C) are expected over most areas while below normal minimum temperatures(Less than 13.0 ⁰C) are expected over high grounds areas.

Western areas (Kigoma, Tabora and Katavi regions): Normal minimum temperatures (Between 14.9 ⁰C and 17.0 ⁰C) are expected over these areas whereas northern parts of Kigoma region (Kibondo) are likely to experience above normal minimum temperatures (More than 17.0 ⁰C).

Central areas (Singida and Dodoma regions): Normal minimum temperatures (Between 14.1 ⁰C and 14.7 ⁰C) are expected over these areas. Wind and chilly weather conditions are likely to occur at times.

Southern coastal areas (Mtwara and Lindi regions): Above normal minimum temperatures (More than 19.1⁰C) are expected over these areas.

Southern areas (Ruvuma): Below normal minimum temperatures(Less than 11.8⁰C) are expected particularly over the western parts, otherwise normal minimum temperatures are likely to be experienced over other areas.

Southwestern highland areas (Mbeya, Iringa, Njombe and southern part of Morogoro regions): Below normal (Very cold conditions) minimum temperatures(Less than 6.0⁰C) are expected. However, the northern parts of Iringa region are expected to experience normal minimum temperatures.

 

2.2 RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-AUGUST, 2014

Although June-August period usually experiences dry weather conditions, occasional rains are expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, North-eastern highlands and over the northern coast. The details are as follows;

Lake Victoria basin: (Mara and Kagera regions): Occasional rain showers are expected over these areas especially during the months of July and August 2014.

Northern coast and hinterlands (Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Coast, northern part of Morogoro regions and isles of Unguja and Pemba): Occasional rains are expected over these areas especially during the end of June and for the months of July and August 2014.

Northeastern highlands (Kilimanjaro and Arusha regions): Occasional rains are expected over these areas (especially over the high grounds) particularly during the months of July and August 2014.

3. IMPACTS AND ADVISORY

Likelihood of experiencing normal weather conditions over most parts of the country. However, for all temperature sensitive sectors appropriate measures should be taken to ensure preparedness, response, and mitigation of any negative impacts resulting from the expected weather conditions.  It is advisable to use the forecast together with the shorter time scale forecasts issued regularly by the Agency.

The Agency strongly advices all users including agriculture, food security, livestock, wildlife, water resources, health sectors, etc to seek professional advice from experts in their respective sectors with regard to the expected climate conditions.

Tanzania Meteorological Agency will continue to monitor developments of weather systems, including passage of cold frontal systems over the southern Africa, which may influence changes in temperature patterns over the country. Updates will be issued whenever necessary.

Dr. Agnes L Kijazi

DIRECTOR GENERAL